Silvaco Group, Inc.

SVCOdata completeness 88%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Silvaco Group, Inc. earns about -29% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 49% over 3 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own

Figure	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025
Revenue	$54.2M¹	$59.7M²	$63.1M²
Net income	−$316,000³	−$39.4M⁴	−$41.2M⁴
Operating cash flow	$1.18M⁵	−$19.8M⁶	−$33.9M⁶
Capital expenditure	$339,000⁷	$505,000⁸	$618,000⁸
Free cash flow (derived)	$841,000⁵	−$20.3M⁶	−$34.5M⁶
Total debt	—	—	—
Cash & equivalents	$4.42M⁹	$19.6M¹⁰	$9.01M¹⁰
Diluted shares	20.0M	25.7M	29.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal

If you owned

Net assets behind them

$25.21

your share of equity

Profit it earned you last year

−$13.85

Free cash flow it threw off

−$11.61

Debt you’d be carrying

—

10 shares is a claim on $25.21 of net worth that earned you −$13.85 and generated −$11.61 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?

Moat signal · return on invested capital

-29% avg · 3y

FY23 5%FY24 -38%FY25 -53%

It earned an average -29% on invested capital over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →

Management signal · capital allocation

+49% shares · 3y

Share count is up 49% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y

not applicable

3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)

DCF · Growth Exit 5Y

not applicable

3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)

Earnings Power Value

not applicable

normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined

Graham Number

not applicable

diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts

10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-010567 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017378 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-010567 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017378 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-010567 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017378 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-010567 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017378 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-010567 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017378 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)