MeritValue

Service Properties Trust

SVCdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Service Properties Trust earns about -2% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.1B1$1.47B2$1.48B3$1.5B3$1.41B3
Net income−$544.6M4−$132.4M5−$32.8M6−$275.5M6−$202.3M6
Operating cash flow$49.9M7$243.1M8$485.5M9$139.4M9$117.8M9
Capital expenditure$95M10$103.6M11$200.9M12$303.6M12$224.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$45.1M7$139.5M8$284.7M9−$164.2M9−$107M9
Total debt——$5.63B13$5.83B14$5.5B15
Cash & equivalents$944M16$38.4M17$180.1M18$143.5M18$346.8M18
Diluted shares164.6M164.7M165.0M165.3M166.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$38.93
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$12.19
Free cash flow it threw off
−$6.45
Debt you’d be carrying
$331.71

10 shares is a claim on $38.93 of net worth that earned you −$12.19 and generated −$6.45 of cash last year, against $331.71 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-2% avg · 5y
FY21 -23%FY22 12%FY23 4%FY24 0%FY25 -3%

It earned an average -2% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000945394-24-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000945394-25-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000945394-26-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000945394-24-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000945394-25-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000945394-26-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000945394-24-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000945394-25-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000945394-26-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000945394-24-000015 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000945394-25-000014 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000945394-26-000012 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000945394-24-000015 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000945394-25-000014 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0000945394-26-000012 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000945394-24-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000945394-25-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000945394-26-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)