MeritValue

SINOVAC BIOTECH LTD

SVAdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

SINOVAC BIOTECH LTD earns about -1% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $2.09 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$19.4B1$1.47B1$470.2M2$361.4M2$386M2
Net income$8.12B3$14.5M3−$13.5M3$40.7M4−$198.8M4
Operating cash flow$15.3B5−$798.1M5$138.6M6−$56.9M6−$512.2M6
Capital expenditure$594.2M7$313.9M7$156.2M8$96M8$48.9M8
Free cash flow (derived)$14.7B5−$1.11B5−$17.5M6−$152.9M6−$561.1M6
Total debt$15.8M9$11.8M10$253.9M11$375.8M12$494.9M13
Cash & equivalents$11.6B14$3.88B14$1.12B14$335.3M15$488.2M15
Diluted shares71.6M71.8M71.9M71.9M71.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$617.71
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$27.67
Free cash flow it threw off
−$78.08
Debt you’d be carrying
$68.86

10 shares is a claim on $617.71 of net worth that earned you −$27.67 and generated −$78.08 of cash last year, against $68.86 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-1% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 -1%FY23 -1%FY24 0%FY25 -5%

It earned an average -1% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 3039% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$2.09
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$14.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-194394 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-258534 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-194394 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-258534 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-194394 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-258534 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-194394 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-258534 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-22-016857 (LongTermDebt)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-015997 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-049936 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-194394 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-258534 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-194394 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-258534 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)