SUPERNUS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.
SUPNdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on fileSUPERNUS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $9.81 and $30.25 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $579.8M1 | $667.2M2 | $607.5M3 | $661.8M3 | $719M3 |
| Net income | $53.4M4 | $60.7M5 | $1.32M6 | $73.9M6 | −$38.6M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $127.1M7 | $116.8M8 | $111.1M9 | $172M9 | $47.3M9 |
| Capital expenditure | — | $412,00010 | $551,00011 | $725,00011 | $1.34M11 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | — | $116.4M8 | $110.5M9 | $171.2M9 | $46M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $203.4M12 | $93.1M12 | $75.1M13 | $69.3M13 | $128.4M13 |
| Diluted shares | 54.4M | 61.7M | 55.5M | 56.0M | 56.5M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $188.08 of net worth that earned you −$6.83 and generated $8.15 of cash last year.
It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $9.81 and $30.25 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$110.5M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$110.5M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$53.4M
- growthAssumed0.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $30.25 |
| Base | 0.0% | $30.25 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $37.02 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001356576-23-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001356576-25-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001356576-26-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001356576-23-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001356576-25-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001356576-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001356576-23-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001356576-25-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001356576-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001356576-25-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001356576-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001356576-23-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001356576-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)