MeritValue

SUN COMMUNITIES INC

SUIdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

SUN COMMUNITIES INC earns about 2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 9% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $21.69 and $378.64 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.6B1$1.9B1$2.28B2$2.26B2$2.31B2
Net income$408.3M3$261.4M4−$206.9M5$103.6M5$1.41B5
Operating cash flow$753.6M6$734.9M7$790.5M8$861M8$864.2M8
Capital expenditure$672.6M9$921M9$7.1M10$30.2M11$457M11
Free cash flow (derived)$81M6−$186.1M7$783.4M8$830.8M8$407.2M8
Total debt$5.7M12$7.24B13$7.82B14$7.39B15—
Cash & equivalents$65.8M16$72.8M17$29.2M18$47.9M19$569.6M19
Diluted shares115.1M122.9M123.8M127.2M124.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$556.93
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$113.2
Free cash flow it threw off
$32.6
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $556.93 of net worth that earned you $113.2 and generated $32.6 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 —FY23 1%FY24 1%FY25 -0%

It earned about 2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+9% shares · 5y

Share count is up 9% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 129546% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $21.69 and $378.64 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$378.64
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$783.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$209.06
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$783.4M
Earnings Power Value
$21.69
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$261.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$116.55
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $209.06
The three cases
Bear0.0%$94.18
Base20.0%$209.06
Bull20.0%$209.06

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000912593-23-000080 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000912593-26-000086 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000912593-24-000094 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000912593-25-000086 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000912593-26-000086 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000912593-24-000094 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000912593-25-000086 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000912593-26-000086 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000912593-23-000080 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000912593-25-000086 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000912593-26-000086 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000912593-22-000039 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000912593-23-000080 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000912593-24-000094 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000912593-25-000086 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000912593-23-000080 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000912593-24-000094 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000912593-25-000086 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000912593-26-000086 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)