MeritValue

SU Group Holdings Ltd

SUGPdata completeness 88%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

SU Group Holdings Ltd earns about 8% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 15% over 3 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $9.27 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$20.9M1$23.4M2$24.7M3
Net income$1.24M4$1.37M5−$2.37M6
Operating cash flow−$1.73M7$1.81M8−$1.99M9
Capital expenditure$99,00210$388,37611$210,78412
Free cash flow (derived)−$1.83M7$1.43M8−$2.2M9
Total debt———
Cash & equivalents$2.09M13$6.73M14$3.26M15
Diluted shares1.2M1.3M1.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$79.98
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$17.16
Free cash flow it threw off
−$15.87
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $79.98 of net worth that earned you −$17.16 and generated −$15.87 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 3y
FY23 24%FY24 23%FY25 -25%

It earned an average 8% on invested capital over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+15% shares · 3y

Share count is up 15% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$9.27
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.24M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001213900-24-008504 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001213900-25-007523 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2025-09-30 · accession 0001753926-26-000125 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001213900-24-008504 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001213900-25-007523 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2025-09-30 · accession 0001753926-26-000125 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001213900-24-008504 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001213900-25-007523 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2025-09-30 · accession 0001753926-26-000125 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001213900-24-008504 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001213900-25-007523 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2025-09-30 · accession 0001753926-26-000125 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001213900-24-008504 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001213900-25-007523 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2025-09-30 · accession 0001753926-26-000125 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)