MeritValue

Seagate Technology Holdings plc

STXdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Seagate Technology Holdings plc earns about 24% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 11% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $21.52 and $62.75 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$10.7B1$11.7B2$7.38B3$6.55B3$9.1B3
Net income$1.31B4$1.65B5−$529M6$335M6$1.47B6
Operating cash flow$1.63B7$1.66B8$942M9$918M9$1.08B9
Capital expenditure$498M10$381M11$316M12$254M12$265M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.13B7$1.28B8$626M9$664M9$818M9
Total debt$5.14B13$6.61B14$5.45B15$5.67B16$5B16
Cash & equivalents$1.21B17$615M18$786M19$1.36B19$891M19
Diluted shares245.0M224.0M207.0M212.0M217.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$20.88
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$67.7
Free cash flow it threw off
$37.7
Debt you’d be carrying
$230.18

10 shares is a claim on −$20.88 of net worth that earned you $67.7 and generated $37.7 of cash last year, against $230.18 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
24% avg · 5y
FY21 34%FY22 31%FY23 -4%FY24 21%FY25 40%

It earned about 24% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−11% shares · 5y

Share count is down 11% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $21.52 and $62.75 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$21.52
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$664M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$24.81
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$664M
Earnings Power Value
$62.75
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.31B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $24.81
The three cases
Bear0.0%$24.81
Base0.0%$24.81
Bull5.0%$35.39

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-02 · accession 0001137789-23-000049 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-01 · accession 0001137789-24-000068 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001137789-25-000157 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-02 · accession 0001137789-23-000049 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-01 · accession 0001137789-24-000068 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001137789-25-000157 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-02 · accession 0001137789-23-000049 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-01 · accession 0001137789-24-000068 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001137789-25-000157 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-02 · accession 0001137789-23-000049 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-01 · accession 0001137789-24-000068 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001137789-25-000157 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-02 · accession 0001137789-22-000055 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-01 · accession 0001137789-23-000049 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001137789-24-000068 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-28 · accession 0001137789-25-000157 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-02 · accession 0001137789-23-000049 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-01 · accession 0001137789-24-000068 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001137789-25-000157 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)