Seagate Technology Holdings plc
STXdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'
Seagate Technology Holdings plc earns about 33% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $39.14 and $66.54 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | FY 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.7B1 | $7.38B2 | $6.55B3 | $9.1B3 | $12.2B3 |
| Net income | $1.65B4 | −$529M5 | $335M6 | $1.47B6 | $3.18B6 |
| Operating cash flow | $1.66B7 | $942M8 | $918M9 | $1.08B9 | $3.67B9 |
| Capital expenditure | $381M10 | $316M11 | $254M12 | $265M12 | $569M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $1.28B7 | $626M8 | $664M9 | $818M9 | $3.11B9 |
| Total debt | $6.61B13 | $5.45B14 | $5.67B15 | $5B16 | $3.57B16 |
| Cash & equivalents | $615M17 | $786M18 | $1.36B19 | $891M19 | $1.7B19 |
| Diluted shares | 224.0M | 207.0M | 212.0M | 217.0M | 229.0M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $94.63 of net worth that earned you $139.04 and generated $135.59 of cash last year, against $155.68 of debt.
It earned about 33% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 46% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $39.14 and $66.54 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.6%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$818M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.6%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$818M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.6%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$1.47B
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $42.99 |
| Base | 0.0% | $42.99 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $55.36 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2022-07-01 · accession 0001137789-24-000068 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001137789-25-000157 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-28 · accession 0001137789-26-000159 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-07-01 · accession 0001137789-24-000068 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001137789-25-000157 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-28 · accession 0001137789-26-000159 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-07-01 · accession 0001137789-24-000068 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001137789-25-000157 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-28 · accession 0001137789-26-000159 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-07-01 · accession 0001137789-24-000068 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001137789-25-000157 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-28 · accession 0001137789-26-000159 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-07-01 · accession 0001137789-23-000049 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001137789-24-000068 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-28 · accession 0001137789-25-000157 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-06-27 · accession 0001137789-26-000159 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-07-01 · accession 0001137789-24-000068 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001137789-25-000157 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-28 · accession 0001137789-26-000159 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)