STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC.
STWDdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on fileSTARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC. earns about 18% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 18% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $12.19 and $30.5 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.17B1 | $1.46B2 | $2.05B3 | $1.95B3 | $1.84B3 |
| Net income | $447.7M4 | $871.5M5 | $339.2M6 | $359.9M6 | $411.5M6 |
| Operating cash flow | −$990M7 | $213.7M8 | $528.6M9 | $646.6M9 | $977.9M9 |
| Capital expenditure | — | — | $010 | $010 | $878.5M10 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | — | — | $528.6M9 | $646.6M9 | $99.4M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $217.4M11 | $261.1M12 | $194.7M13 | $377.8M14 | $499.5M14 |
| Diluted shares | 296.8M | 315.7M | 310.5M | 320.6M | 350.0M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $194.16 of net worth that earned you $11.76 and generated $2.84 of cash last year.
It earned about 18% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 18% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $12.19 and $30.5 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$528.6M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$528.6M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$411.5M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $23.01 |
| Base | 5.0% | $28.23 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $34.48 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006128 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008420 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001465128-26-000009 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006128 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008420 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001465128-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006128 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008420 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001465128-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001465128-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005726 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006128 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008420 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001465128-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)