StubHub Holdings, Inc.
STUBdata completeness 100%3 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'
StubHub Holdings, Inc. earns about 11% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 3 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $8.89 and $10.12 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.37B1 | $1.77B1 | $1.75B1 |
| Net income | $405.2M2 | −$2.8M2 | −$1.91B2 |
| Operating cash flow | $307.4M3 | $261.5M3 | $192.6M3 |
| Capital expenditure | $1.72M4 | $1.67M4 | $1.39M4 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $305.7M3 | $259.8M3 | $191.2M3 |
| Total debt | — | $4.66B5 | $3.01B5 |
| Cash & equivalents | $775.7M6 | $1B6 | $1.24B6 |
| Diluted shares | 307.8M | 304.4M | 319.2M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $37.08 of net worth that earned you −$59.7 and generated $5.99 of cash last year, against $94.41 of debt.
It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 4% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 35% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $8.89 and $10.12 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$259.8M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$259.8M
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $6.08 |
| Base | 5.0% | $8.89 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $12.26 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-014844 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-014844 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-014844 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-014844 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-014844 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-014844 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)