MeritValue

STATE STREET CORP

STTdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

STATE STREET CORP earns about 23% on invested capital, and has bought back 19% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $96.56 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$12B1$12.1B2$11.9B3$13B3$13.9B3
Net income$2.69B4$2.77B5$1.94B6$2.69B6$2.95B6
Operating cash flow−$6.71B7$12B8$690M9−$13.2B9$11.9B9
Capital expenditure$811M10$734M11$816M12$926M12$1.06B12
Free cash flow (derived)−$7.52B7$11.2B8−$126M9−$14.1B9$10.8B9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$3.63B13$3.97B14$4.05B14$3.15B14$4.43B14
Diluted shares358.0M370.1M326.6M302.2M289.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$963.29
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$101.9
Free cash flow it threw off
$375.17
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $963.29 of net worth that earned you $101.9 and generated $375.17 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
23% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 19%FY23 37%FY24 23%FY25 23%

It earned an average 23% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−19% shares · 5y

Share count is down 19% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$96.56
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.69B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$142.74
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000093751-24-000498 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000093751-25-000111 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000093751-26-000124 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000093751-24-000498 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000093751-25-000111 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000093751-26-000124 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000093751-24-000498 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000093751-25-000111 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000093751-26-000124 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000093751-24-000498 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000093751-25-000111 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000093751-26-000124 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000093751-25-000111 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000093751-26-000124 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)