MeritValue

STRATTEC SECURITY CORP

STRTdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

STRATTEC SECURITY CORP earns about 9% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $40.38 and $204.1 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$452.3M1$492.9M2$537.8M3$565.1M3$579.4M3
Net income$7.02M4−$6.67M5$16.3M6$18.7M6$20.6M6
Operating cash flow$10.4M7$10.1M8$12.3M9$71.7M9$46.3M9
Capital expenditure$14.2M10$17.4M11$9.79M12$7.16M12$7.33M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$3.75M7−$7.28M8$2.48M9$64.5M9$39M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$8.77M13$20.6M14$25.4M15$84.6M16$108.2M16
Diluted shares3.9M3.9M4.0M4.1M4.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$578.96
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$49.97
Free cash flow it threw off
$94.56
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $578.96 of net worth that earned you $49.97 and generated $94.56 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY22 5%FY23 -3%FY24 10%FY25 14%FY26 17%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $40.38 and $204.1 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$204.1
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$39M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$190.31
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$39M
Earnings Power Value
$40.38
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$16.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$82.16
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.08%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $190.31
The three cases
Bear0.0%$158.41
Base5.0%$190.31
Bull10.0%$228.47

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-03 · accession 0000950170-23-046852 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-02 · accession 0000950170-24-104109 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001193125-26-374333 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-03 · accession 0000950170-23-046852 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-02 · accession 0000950170-24-104109 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001193125-26-374333 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-03 · accession 0000950170-23-046852 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-02 · accession 0000950170-24-104109 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001193125-26-374333 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-03 · accession 0000950170-23-046852 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-02 · accession 0000950170-24-104109 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001193125-26-374333 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-03 · accession 0000950170-23-046852 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-02 · accession 0000950170-24-104109 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000950170-25-111218 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-29 · accession 0001193125-26-374333 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)