MeritValue

STRATTEC SECURITY CORP

STRTdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

STRATTEC SECURITY CORP earns about 9% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 6% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $28.78 and $41.47 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$485.3M1$452.3M2$492.9M3$537.8M4$565.1M4
Net income$22.5M5$7.02M6−$6.67M7$16.3M8$18.7M8
Operating cash flow$35.2M9$10.4M10$10.1M11$12.3M12$71.7M12
Capital expenditure$8.93M13$14.2M14$17.4M15$9.79M16$7.16M16
Free cash flow (derived)$26.2M9−$3.75M10−$7.28M11$2.48M12$64.5M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$14.5M17$8.77M18$20.6M19$25.4M20$84.6M20
Diluted shares3.9M3.9M3.9M4.0M4.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$543.65
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$45.84
Free cash flow it threw off
$158.29
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $543.65 of net worth that earned you $45.84 and generated $158.29 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 18%FY22 5%FY23 -3%FY24 10%FY25 14%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+6% shares · 5y

Share count is up 6% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $28.78 and $41.47 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$28.78
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$2.48M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$29.43
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$2.48M
Earnings Power Value
$41.47
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$16.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$74.85
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $29.43
The three cases
Bear0.0%$29.43
Base0.0%$29.43
Bull5.0%$31.53

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-27 · accession 0001564590-22-031301 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-03 · accession 0000950170-23-046852 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-02 · accession 0000950170-24-104109 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000950170-25-111218 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-27 · accession 0001564590-22-031301 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-03 · accession 0000950170-23-046852 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-02 · accession 0000950170-24-104109 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000950170-25-111218 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-27 · accession 0001564590-22-031301 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-03 · accession 0000950170-23-046852 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-02 · accession 0000950170-24-104109 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000950170-25-111218 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-27 · accession 0001564590-22-031301 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-03 · accession 0000950170-23-046852 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-02 · accession 0000950170-24-104109 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000950170-25-111218 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-27 · accession 0001564590-22-031301 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-03 · accession 0000950170-23-046852 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-02 · accession 0000950170-24-104109 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000950170-25-111218 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)