MeritValue

SUTRO BIOPHARMA, INC.

STROdata completeness 75%10 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

SUTRO BIOPHARMA, INC. earns about -48% on invested capital, and has bought back 82% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$61.9M1$67.8M2$153.7M2$62M3$102.5M3
Net income−$105.5M4−$119.2M5−$106.8M5−$227.5M6−$191.1M6
Operating cash flow−$81.7M7$3.55M8−$111.6M8−$191.5M9−$177.2M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$59.6M10$45M11$12.2M11——
Cash & equivalents$30.4M12$47.3M13$69.3M13$190.3M14$58.1M14
Diluted shares46.1M50.7M60.2M7.7M8.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$155.87
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$224.87
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on −$155.87 of net worth that earned you −$224.87 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-48% avg · 5y
FY21 -29%FY22 -42%FY23 -75%FY24 —FY25 —

It earned an average -48% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−82% shares · 5y

Share count is down 82% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 80% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-035949 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-038884 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-119873 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-035949 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-038884 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-119873 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-035949 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-038884 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-119873 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010976 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-035949 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-035949 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-038884 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-119873 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)