STERLING INFRASTRUCTURE, INC.
STRLdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'
STERLING INFRASTRUCTURE, INC. earns about 24% on equity, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 6% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $46.43 and $801.48 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.41B1 | $1.77B2 | $1.97B3 | $2.12B3 | $2.49B3 |
| Net income | $62.6M4 | $106.5M5 | $138.7M6 | $257.5M6 | $290.2M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $158.9M7 | $219.1M8 | $478.6M9 | $497.1M9 | $440M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $46.7M10 | $60.9M11 | $64.4M12 | $81M12 | $77.3M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $112.3M7 | $158.2M8 | $414.2M9 | $416.2M9 | $362.7M9 |
| Total debt | $451.9M13 | $431.3M14 | $341.5M15 | $316.3M16 | $291M16 |
| Cash & equivalents | $60.9M17 | $181.5M18 | $471.6M19 | $664.2M19 | $390.7M19 |
| Diluted shares | 29.1M | 30.6M | 31.2M | 31.1M | 30.9M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $358.2 of net worth that earned you $93.76 and generated $117.19 of cash last year, against $94.05 of debt.
It earned about 24% on equity, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 6% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 36% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $46.43 and $801.48 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$414.2M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$414.2M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$138.7M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $194.45 |
| Base | 20.0% | $439.6 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $439.6 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000874238-24-000032 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000874238-25-000025 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000874238-26-000024 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000874238-24-000032 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000874238-25-000025 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000874238-26-000024 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000874238-24-000032 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000874238-25-000025 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000874238-26-000024 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000874238-24-000032 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000874238-25-000025 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000874238-26-000024 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000874238-23-000023 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000874238-24-000032 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000874238-25-000025 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000874238-26-000024 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000874238-24-000032 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000874238-25-000025 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000874238-26-000024 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)