MeritValue

Strategic Education, Inc.

STRAdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Strategic Education, Inc. earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $30.9 and $163.65 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.13B1$1.07B2$1.13B3$1.22B3$1.27B3
Net income$55.1M4$46.7M5$69.8M6$112.7M6$126.6M6
Operating cash flow$180.5M7$126.1M8$117.1M9$169.3M9$198.2M9
Capital expenditure$49.4M10$43.2M11$36.9M12$40.6M12$44.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$131.1M7$82.9M8$80.2M9$128.8M9$153.9M9
Total debt$141.6M13$101.4M14$61.4M15$015—
Cash & equivalents$268.9M16$213.7M17$168.5M18$137.1M19$140.8M19
Diluted shares24.1M24.0M24.0M24.1M23.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$703.53
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$54.1
Free cash flow it threw off
$65.78
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $703.53 of net worth that earned you $54.1 and generated $65.78 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 3%FY23 5%FY24 7%FY25 8%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $30.9 and $163.65 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$163.65
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth10.2%
  • fcfBase$128.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$127.63
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth10.2%
  • fcfBase$128.8M
Earnings Power Value
$30.9
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$69.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$92.54
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years10.2%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $127.63
The three cases
Bear0.0%$84.62
Base10.2%$127.63
Bull15.2%$154.9

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 10.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001013934-24-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001013934-25-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001013934-26-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001013934-24-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001013934-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001013934-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001013934-24-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001013934-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001013934-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001013934-24-000004 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001013934-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001013934-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001013934-23-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001013934-24-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001013934-25-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001013934-23-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001013934-24-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001013934-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001013934-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)