MeritValue

Stoke Therapeutics, Inc.

STOKdata completeness 88%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. earns about -40% on equity, but has diluted owners by 61% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—$12.4M1$8.78M2$36.6M3$184.4M3
Net income−$85.8M4−$101.1M5−$104.7M6−$89M7−$6.89M7
Operating cash flow−$66.9M8−$31.9M9−$81.1M10−$86.9M11$45.6M11
Capital expenditure$1.2M12$3.96M13$1.62M14$203,00015$670,00015
Free cash flow (derived)−$68.1M8−$35.8M9−$82.7M10−$87.1M11$44.9M11
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$144.9M16$113.6M17$191.4M18$128M19$84.2M19
Diluted shares36.7M38.9M44.0M54.0M59.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$59.52
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.16
Free cash flow it threw off
$7.58
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $59.52 of net worth that earned you −$1.16 and generated $7.58 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-40% avg · 5y
FY21 -39%FY22 -55%FY23 -66%FY24 -39%FY25 -2%

It earned an average -40% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+61% shares · 5y

Share count is up 61% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-035912 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-041170 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-108362 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-003175 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-035912 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-041170 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-108362 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-003175 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-035912 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-041170 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-108362 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-003175 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-035912 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-041170 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-108362 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-003175 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-035912 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-041170 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-108362 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)