MeritValue

STMicroelectronics N.V.

STMdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

STMicroelectronics N.V. earns about 15% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $22.45 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$12.8B1$16.1B2$17.3B3$13.3B3$11.8B3
Net income$2B4$3.96B5$4.21B6$1.56B6$166M6
Operating cash flow$3.06B7$5.2B8$5.99B9$2.97B9$2.15B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$5.08B10$5.43B11$5.85B12$5.91B13$4.27B13
Cash & equivalents$3.23B14$3.26B15$3.22B16$2.28B17$2.84B17
Diluted shares924.8M946.2M944.2M939.3M923.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$193.14
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1.8
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$46.22

10 shares is a claim on $193.14 of net worth that earned you $1.8 last year, against $46.22 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
15% avg · 5y
FY21 18%FY22 27%FY23 22%FY24 7%FY25 1%

It earned an average 15% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 16% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$22.45
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$8.84
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006353 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000932787-25-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000932787-26-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006353 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000932787-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000932787-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006353 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000932787-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000932787-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-002312 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006353 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000932787-25-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000932787-26-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-002312 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006353 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000932787-25-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000932787-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)