MeritValue

HG Holdings, Inc.

STLYdata completeness 75%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

HG Holdings, Inc. earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 37% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $4.02 and $32.27 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.44M1$14.5M2$11.1M3$11.5M4$14.7M4
Net income$2.76M5$3.74M6−$822,0007−$239,0008$1.53M8
Operating cash flow−$935,0009$2.71M10$1.68M11$1.96M12$878,00012
Capital expenditure$13,00013$67,00014$51,00015$015—
Free cash flow (derived)−$948,0009$2.64M10$1.63M11$1.96M12—
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$20.1M16$9.46M17$10.2M18$12.1M19$10.3M19
Diluted shares2.9M2.9M2.9M2.8M3.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$105.69
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.88
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $105.69 of net worth that earned you $3.88 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 28%FY22 15%FY23 -3%FY24 -1%FY25 -3%

It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+37% shares · 5y

Share count is up 37% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $4.02 and $32.27 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$32.27
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.96M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$18.83
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.96M
Earnings Power Value
$4.02
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.53M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$9.63
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $18.83
The three cases
Bear0.0%$9.72
Base20.0%$18.83
Bull20.0%$18.83

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008641 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009811 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-009465 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009993 (Revenues)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008641 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009811 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-009465 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009993 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008641 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009811 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-009465 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009993 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008641 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009811 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-009465 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008641 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009811 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-009465 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009993 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)