MeritValue

STEEL DYNAMICS INC

STLDdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

STEEL DYNAMICS INC earns about 19% on invested capital, and has bought back 28% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $171.14 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$18.4B1$22.3B2$18.8B3$17.5B3$18.2B3
Net income$3.21B4$3.86B5$2.45B6$1.54B6$1.19B6
Operating cash flow$2.2B7$4.46B8$3.52B9$1.84B9$1.45B9
Capital expenditure$1.01B10$908.9M11$1.66B12$1.87B12$948M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.2B7$3.55B8$1.86B9−$23.5M9$501.5M9
Total debt$6.21B13$6.14B14$6.14B15$6.46B16$8.42B16
Cash & equivalents$1.24B17$1.63B18$1.4B19$589.5M20$769.9M20
Diluted shares206.6M184.6M167.4M156.1M148.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$603.57
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$79.89
Free cash flow it threw off
$33.79
Debt you’d be carrying
$567.53

10 shares is a claim on $603.57 of net worth that earned you $79.89 and generated $33.79 of cash last year, against $567.53 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
19% avg · 5y
FY21 29%FY22 31%FY23 19%FY24 10%FY25 7%

It earned an average 19% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−28% shares · 5y

Share count is down 28% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 36% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$501.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$501.5M
Earnings Power Value
$171.14
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.45B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$104.17
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002152 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001886 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-021395 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002152 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001886 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-021395 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002152 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001886 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-021395 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002152 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001886 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-021395 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002303 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002152 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001886 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-021395 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002303 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002152 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001886 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-021395 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)