MeritValue

ONE Group Hospitality, Inc.

STKSdata completeness 100%20 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. earns about 11% on invested capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $1.58 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$277.2M1$316.6M2$332.8M3$673.3M4$805.7M4
Net income$31.3M5$13.5M6$4.72M7−$17.1M8−$92.2M8
Operating cash flow$31M9$25.3M10$30.8M11$44.2M12$30.3M12
Capital expenditure$11.5M13$32.6M14$53.6M15$71.6M16$57.6M16
Free cash flow (derived)$19.5M9−$7.38M10−$22.8M11−$27.4M12−$27.3M12
Total debt$48.4M17$146.3M18$145.4M19$682.5M20$697.5M20
Cash & equivalents$23.6M21$55.1M22$21M23$27.6M24$4.17M24
Diluted shares33.8M33.9M32.3M31.2M31.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$24.45
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$29.74
Free cash flow it threw off
−$8.8
Debt you’d be carrying
$224.89

10 shares is a claim on −$24.45 of net worth that earned you −$29.74 and generated −$8.8 of cash last year, against $224.89 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 41%FY22 9%FY23 5%FY24 0%FY25 1%

It earned an average 11% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 1342% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$1.58
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$4.72M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003329 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003231 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002590 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-032065 (Revenues)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003329 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003231 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002590 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-032065 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003329 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003231 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002590 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-032065 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003329 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003231 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002590 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-032065 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003329 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003231 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002590 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-032065 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003329 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003231 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002590 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-032065 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)