Sunlands Technology Group
STGdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on fileSunlands Technology Group earns about 109% on equity, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $67.45 and $80.43 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $393.5M1 | $336.8M2 | $304.2M3 | $272.7M4 | $288.8M5 |
| Net income | $34.4M6 | $93.4M7 | $90.3M8 | $46.9M9 | $52.3M10 |
| Operating cash flow | −$58.6M11 | $1.33M12 | $19.8M13 | $26.8M14 | $21M15 |
| Capital expenditure | $2.15M16 | $470,00017 | $812,00018 | $35,00019 | $30,00020 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$60.7M11 | $859,00012 | $19M13 | $26.8M14 | $21M15 |
| Total debt | $34.6M21 | $26.4M22 | $20.2M23 | $5.69M24 | $025 |
| Cash & equivalents | $98.3M26 | $109.3M27 | $107.6M28 | $69.5M29 | $82.3M30 |
| Diluted shares | 6.7M | 6.8M | 6.9M | 6.8M | 6.7M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $200.72 of net worth that earned you $77.61 and generated $31.12 of cash last year, against $0 of debt.
It earned about 109% on equity, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $67.45 and $80.43 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$21M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$21M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$52.3M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $56.69 |
| Base | 5.0% | $67.45 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $80.33 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
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