MeritValue

StepStone Group Inc.

STEPdata completeness 88%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

StepStone Group Inc. earns about 2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 47% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $24.83 and $25.7 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$1.37B1−$67.6M2$711.6M3$1.17B3$1.99B3
Net income$193.9M4−$18.4M5$58.1M6−$179.6M6−$535.8M6
Operating cash flow$214.3M7$151.2M8$161.5M9$64.9M9$66.5M9
Capital expenditure$2.1M10$5.63M11$19.6M12$5.1M12$2.62M12
Free cash flow (derived)$212.2M7$145.6M8$141.9M9$59.8M9$63.9M9
Total debt$62.9M13$98.4M14$148.8M15$269.3M15—
Cash & equivalents$116.4M16$129.5M17$182.3M17$289.8M17$1.12B17
Diluted shares53.6M61.9M66.5M71.1M79.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$52.32
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$67.79
Free cash flow it threw off
$8.08
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on −$52.32 of net worth that earned you −$67.79 and generated $8.08 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY22 64%FY23 -4%FY24 60%FY25 -110%FY26 —

It earned about 2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+47% shares · 5y

Share count is up 47% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 328% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $24.83 and $25.7 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$24.83
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$63.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$25.7
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$63.9M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $25.7
The three cases
Bear0.0%$25.7
Base0.0%$25.7
Bull5.0%$28.5

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001796022-24-000041 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001796022-25-000041 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001628280-26-038446 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001796022-24-000041 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001796022-25-000041 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001628280-26-038446 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001796022-24-000041 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001796022-25-000041 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001628280-26-038446 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001796022-24-000041 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001796022-25-000041 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001628280-26-038446 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001796022-23-000033 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001796022-24-000041 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001796022-25-000041 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001796022-22-000029 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001628280-26-038446 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)