STEM, INC.

STEMdata completeness 75%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

STEM, INC. earns about -24% on equity, and has bought back 92% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own

Figure	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025
Revenue	$127.4M¹	$363M²	$461.5M³	$144.6M³	$156.3M³
Net income	−$101.2M⁴	−$124.1M⁴	−$140.4M⁵	−$854M⁵	$137.8M⁵
Operating cash flow	−$101.3M⁶	−$106M⁷	−$207.4M⁸	−$36.7M⁸	$6.86M⁸
Capital expenditure	—	—	—	—	—
Free cash flow (derived)	—	—	—	—	—
Total debt	—	—	—	—	—
Cash & equivalents	$747.8M⁹	$87.9M¹⁰	$105.4M¹¹	$56.3M¹¹	$48.9M¹¹
Diluted shares	105.6M	153.4M	7.8M	8.1M	8.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal

If you owned

Net assets behind them

−$293.81

your share of equity

Profit it earned you last year

$162.26

Free cash flow it threw off

—

Debt you’d be carrying

—

10 shares is a claim on −$293.81 of net worth that earned you $162.26 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?

Moat signal · return on equity

-24% avg · 5y

FY21 -15%FY22 -22%FY23 -33%FY24 —FY25 —

It earned an average -24% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →

Management signal · capital allocation

−92% shares · 5y

Share count is down 92% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y

not applicable

only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable

DCF · Growth Exit 5Y

not applicable

only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable

Earnings Power Value

not applicable

normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined

Graham Number

not applicable

diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts

10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001758766-24-000029 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001758766-25-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001758766-26-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001758766-23-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001758766-26-000016 (ProfitLoss)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001758766-24-000029 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001758766-25-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001758766-26-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001758766-24-000029 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001758766-25-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001758766-26-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)