MeritValue

Starco Brands, Inc.

STCBdata completeness 75%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Starco Brands, Inc. earns about -169% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 361% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.02 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$673,3291$7.81M2$65.2M2——
Net income−$2.25M3$809,9674−$46.2M5−$17.7M6−$20.9M6
Operating cash flow−$1.84M7$377,7778$686,6579$2.22M10−$900,77010
Capital expenditure——$36,43611$310,59012$112,95012
Free cash flow (derived)——$650,2219$1.9M10−$1.01M10
Total debt$53,82213$3.11M14$13M15$8.72M15—
Cash & equivalents$338,86316$1.48M17$1.76M18$1.21M19$1.82M19
Diluted shares159.1M192.9M447.1M625.1M733.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$0.07
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.29
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.01
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $0.07 of net worth that earned you −$0.29 and generated −$0.01 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-169% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 2%FY23 -129%FY24 -52%FY25 -495%

It earned about -169% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+361% shares · 5y

Share count is up 361% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 16107% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$0.02
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$650,221
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$0.02
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$650,221
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $0.02
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.02
Base5.0%$0.02
Bull10.0%$0.02

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-012700 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-013032 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-012700 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-013032 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-005354 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-016613 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-012700 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-013032 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-005354 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-016613 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-005354 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-016613 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-012700 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-013032 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-005354 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-012700 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-013032 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-005354 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-016613 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)