MeritValue

S&T BANCORP INC

STBAdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

S&T BANCORP INC earns about 26% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $36.14 and $61.67 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$289.3M1$340.8M2$477.9M3$515.9M3$516.5M3
Net income$110.3M4$135.5M5$144.8M6$131.3M6$134.2M6
Operating cash flow$214.9M7$240.5M8$171.7M9$173.4M9$133.6M9
Capital expenditure$3.61M10$3.86M11$5.51M12$2.94M12$4.77M12
Free cash flow (derived)$211.2M7$236.7M8$166.2M9$170.4M9$128.8M9
Total debt$013$370M14$415M15$150M15$165M15
Cash & equivalents$922.2M16$210M17$233.6M18$244.8M19$163.4M19
Diluted shares39.1M39.0M38.7M38.5M38.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$380.31
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$34.87
Free cash flow it threw off
$33.47
Debt you’d be carrying
$42.87

10 shares is a claim on $380.31 of net worth that earned you $34.87 and generated $33.47 of cash last year, against $42.87 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
26% avg · 5y
FY21 43%FY22 12%FY23 17%FY24 31%FY25 28%

It earned about 26% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $36.14 and $61.67 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$57.02
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$166.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$61.67
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$166.2M
Earnings Power Value
$36.14
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$134.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$54.65
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $61.67
The three cases
Bear0.0%$61.67
Base0.0%$61.67
Bull5.0%$76.6

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000719220-24-000025 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000719220-25-000013 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000719220-26-000030 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000719220-24-000025 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000719220-25-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000719220-26-000030 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000719220-24-000025 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000719220-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000719220-26-000030 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000719220-24-000025 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000719220-25-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000719220-26-000030 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000719220-24-000025 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000719220-25-000013 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000719220-26-000030 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000719220-23-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000719220-24-000025 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000719220-25-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000719220-26-000030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)