MeritValue

STAG Industrial, Inc.

STAGdata completeness 100%14 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

STAG Industrial, Inc. earns about 6% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 14% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.97 and $10.65 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$562.2M1$657.3M2$707.8M3$767.4M3$845.2M3
Net income$192.3M4$178.3M5$192.8M6$189.2M6$273.5M6
Operating cash flow$336.2M7$387.9M8$391.1M9$460.3M9$463.4M9
Capital expenditure$39.5M10$111.7M11$107.9M12$150.4M12$204.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$296.7M7$276.3M8$283.2M9$309.8M9$258.9M9
Total debt$2.22B13$2.5B14$2.62B15$3.03B16$3.25B16
Cash & equivalents$19M17$25.9M18$20.7M19$36.3M20$14.9M20
Diluted shares164.1M178.9M180.6M182.4M187.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$192.1
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$14.61
Free cash flow it threw off
$13.83
Debt you’d be carrying
$173.87

10 shares is a claim on $192.1 of net worth that earned you $14.61 and generated $13.83 of cash last year, against $173.87 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
6% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 5%FY23 6%FY24 5%FY25 8%

It earned about 6% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+14% shares · 5y

Share count is up 14% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 47% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.97 and $10.65 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$3.97
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.8%
  • fcfBase$283.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$5.12
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.8%
  • fcfBase$283.2M
Earnings Power Value
$10.65
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$192.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $5.12
The three cases
Bear0.0%$4.31
Base0.8%$5.12
Bull5.8%$10.51

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001479094-24-000007 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001479094-25-000006 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001479094-26-000009 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001479094-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001479094-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001479094-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001479094-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001479094-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001479094-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001479094-24-000007 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001479094-25-000006 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001479094-26-000009 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001479094-23-000005 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001479094-24-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001479094-25-000006 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001479094-26-000009 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001479094-23-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001479094-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001479094-25-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001479094-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)