MeritValue

Sensata Technologies Holding plc

STdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Sensata Technologies Holding plc earns about 3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.61 and $9.05 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.82B1$4.03B2$4.05B3$3.93B3$3.7B3
Net income$363.6M4$310.7M5−$3.9M6$128.5M6$31.3M6
Operating cash flow$554.2M7$460.6M8$456.7M9$551.5M9$621.5M9
Capital expenditure$144.4M10$150.1M11$184.6M12$158.6M12$131.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$409.7M7$310.5M8$272.1M9$392.9M9$490.3M9
Total debt$8.47B13$8.46B14$6.77B15$6.38B16$5.67B16
Cash & equivalents$1.71B17$1.23B18$508.1M19$593.7M20$573M20
Diluted shares159.4M155.9M152.1M150.7M147.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$189.35
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$2.13
Free cash flow it threw off
$33.33
Debt you’d be carrying
$385.76

10 shares is a claim on $189.35 of net worth that earned you $2.13 and generated $33.33 of cash last year, against $385.76 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 4%FY23 1%FY24 1%FY25 1%

It earned about 3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 33% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.61 and $9.05 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$0.61
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$392.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$3.48
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$392.9M
Earnings Power Value
$9.05
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$128.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$9.46
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $3.48
The three cases
Bear0.0%$3.48
Base0.0%$3.48
Bull5.0%$12.72

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001477294-24-000020 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001477294-25-000022 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001477294-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001477294-24-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001477294-25-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001477294-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001477294-24-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001477294-25-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001477294-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001477294-24-000020 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001477294-25-000022 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001477294-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001477294-23-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001477294-24-000020 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001477294-25-000022 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001477294-26-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001477294-23-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001477294-24-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001477294-25-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001477294-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)