MeritValue

SOUNDTHINKING, INC.

SSTIdata completeness 88%11 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

SOUNDTHINKING, INC. earns about -6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 9% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $16.36 and $28.9 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$58.2M1$81M2$92.7M3$102M3$104.1M3
Net income−$4.43M4$6.39M5−$2.72M6−$9.18M6−$9.42M6
Operating cash flow$9.82M7$12.2M8$11M9$22.2M9$9.3M9
Capital expenditure$7.84M10$10.9M11$5.05M12$6.33M12$4.45M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.98M7$1.27M8$5.9M9$15.9M9$4.85M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$15.6M13$10.5M14$5.7M15$13.2M16$15.8M16
Diluted shares11.6M12.3M12.4M12.7M12.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$56.75
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$7.41
Free cash flow it threw off
$3.82
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $56.75 of net worth that earned you −$7.41 and generated $3.82 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-6% avg · 5y
FY21 -19%FY22 13%FY23 -2%FY24 -11%FY25 -13%

It earned about -6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+9% shares · 5y

Share count is up 9% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $16.36 and $28.9 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$28.9
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$5.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$16.36
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$5.9M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $16.36
The three cases
Bear0.0%$7.87
Base20.0%$16.36
Bull20.0%$16.36

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-039479 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047539 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-132104 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-039479 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047539 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-132104 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-039479 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047539 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-132104 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-039479 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047539 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-132104 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007845 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-039479 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047539 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-132104 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)