MeritValue

System1, Inc.

SSTdata completeness 100%5 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

System1, Inc. earns about -7% on invested capital, and has bought back 91% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$688.4M1$612.2M2$402M3$343.9M4$266.1M4
Net income$33M5−$330.4M6−$227.2M7−$74.7M8−$65.3M8
Operating cash flow$60.7M9$3.32M10−$24.7M11−$5.26M12−$4.15M12
Capital expenditure$49,00013$3.55M14$2.35M15$31,00016$46,00016
Free cash flow (derived)$60.7M9−$229,00010−$27.1M11−$5.29M12−$4.19M12
Total debt$170.5M17$449.5M18$384.8M19$563M20$640.2M20
Cash & equivalents$47.9M21$8.91M22$135.3M23$63.6M24$86.9M24
Diluted shares—89.3M91.5M7.0M7.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$38.79
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$83.2
Free cash flow it threw off
−$5.34
Debt you’d be carrying
$815.17

10 shares is a claim on $38.79 of net worth that earned you −$83.2 and generated −$5.34 of cash last year, against $815.17 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-7% avg · 5y
FY21 52%FY22 -44%FY23 -17%FY24 -13%FY25 -11%

It earned an average -7% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−91% shares · 5y

Share count is down 91% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 276% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001805833-23-000078 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001805833-24-000041 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011690 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001805833-26-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001805833-23-000078 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001805833-24-000041 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011690 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001805833-26-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001805833-23-000078 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001805833-24-000041 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011690 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001805833-26-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001805833-23-000078 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001805833-24-000041 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011690 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001805833-26-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001805833-23-000078 (DebtCurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001805833-23-000078 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001805833-24-000041 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001805833-26-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001805833-23-000078 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001805833-24-000041 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011690 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001805833-26-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)