MeritValue

SSR MINING INC.

SSRMdata completeness 88%10 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

SSR MINING INC. earns about 4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $9.27 and $20.96 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.47B1$1.15B1$1.42B2$987M2$1.6B2
Net income$368.1M3$194.1M4−$98M5−$261.3M5$395.8M5
Operating cash flow$609M6$160.9M7$421.7M8$40.1M8$471.9M8
Capital expenditure$164.8M9$137.5M10$223.4M11$143.5M11$230.2M11
Free cash flow (derived)$444.2M6$23.4M7$198.3M8−$103.4M8$241.6M8
Total debt$734M12$596.6M13$456.9M13$228.6M14—
Cash & equivalents$1.02B15$655.5M16$492.4M17$387.9M17$534.8M17
Diluted shares228.2M222.5M204.7M202.3M217.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$161.63
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$18.24
Free cash flow it threw off
$11.13
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $161.63 of net worth that earned you $18.24 and generated $11.13 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 13%FY22 6%FY23 -4%FY24 -9%FY25 12%

It earned about 4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 69% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $9.27 and $20.96 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$20.96
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.7%
  • fcfBase$198.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$19.14
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.7%
  • fcfBase$198.3M
Earnings Power Value
$9.27
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$194.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$25.94
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.7%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $19.14
The three cases
Bear0.0%$15.52
Base5.7%$19.14
Bull10.7%$23.01

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.7%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000921638-23-000060 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000921638-26-000035 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000921638-24-000047 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000921638-25-000041 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000921638-26-000035 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000921638-24-000047 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000921638-25-000041 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000921638-26-000035 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000921638-24-000047 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000921638-25-000041 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000921638-26-000035 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000921638-23-000060 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000921638-24-000047 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000921638-25-000041 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000921638-24-000047 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000921638-25-000041 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000921638-26-000035 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)