MeritValue

Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc.

SSDdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. earns about 21% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $82.68 and $406.16 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.57B1$2.12B2$2.21B3$2.23B3$2.33B3
Net income$266.4M4$334M5$354M6$322.2M6$345.1M6
Operating cash flow$151.3M7$399.8M8$427M9$338.2M9$458.7M9
Capital expenditure$43.7M10$62.4M11$88.8M12$180.4M12$161M12
Free cash flow (derived)$107.6M7$337.5M8$338.2M9$157.8M9$297.6M9
Total debt$013$455.6M14$433.1M15$410.6M16$315M16
Cash & equivalents$301.2M17$300.7M18$429.8M19$239.4M20$384.1M20
Diluted shares43.5M43.3M42.8M42.4M41.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$484.88
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$82.44
Free cash flow it threw off
$71.1
Debt you’d be carrying
$75.25

10 shares is a claim on $484.88 of net worth that earned you $82.44 and generated $71.1 of cash last year, against $75.25 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
21% avg · 5y
FY21 30%FY22 22%FY23 21%FY24 16%FY25 17%

It earned about 21% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $82.68 and $406.16 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$406.16
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth19.4%
  • fcfBase$297.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$227.84
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth19.4%
  • fcfBase$297.6M
Earnings Power Value
$82.68
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$334M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$94.81
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years19.4%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $227.84
The three cases
Bear0.0%$103.23
Base19.4%$227.84
Bull20.0%$233.45

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 19.4%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000920371-24-000063 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000920371-25-000051 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012920 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000920371-24-000063 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000920371-25-000051 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012920 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000920371-24-000063 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000920371-25-000051 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012920 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000920371-24-000063 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000920371-25-000051 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012920 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000920371-23-000072 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000920371-24-000063 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000920371-25-000051 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012920 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000920371-23-000072 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000920371-24-000063 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000920371-25-000051 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012920 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)