MeritValue

STONERIDGE INC

SRIdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

STONERIDGE INC earns about -5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.64 and $4.3 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$770.5M1$899.9M2$975.8M3$908.3M3$861.3M3
Net income$3.41M4−$14.1M5−$5.18M6−$16.5M6−$102.8M6
Operating cash flow−$36.2M7$6.81M8$4.95M9$47.7M9$34M9
Capital expenditure$22.9M10$27.2M10$38.5M11$24.3M11$21.9M11
Free cash flow (derived)−$59.2M7−$20.4M8−$33.6M9$23.4M9$12.2M9
Total debt$174.5M12$170.7M13$193.6M14$201.6M14$180.9M15
Cash & equivalents$85.5M16$54.8M17$40.8M18$71.8M19$66.3M19
Diluted shares27.4M27.3M27.4M27.6M27.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$64.68
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$37
Free cash flow it threw off
$4.38
Debt you’d be carrying
$65.09

10 shares is a claim on $64.68 of net worth that earned you −$37 and generated $4.38 of cash last year, against $65.09 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-5% avg · 5y
FY21 1%FY22 -4%FY23 -3%FY24 -3%FY25 -15%

It earned about -5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.64 and $4.3 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$4.3
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$12.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$3.64
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$12.2M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $3.64
The three cases
Bear0.0%$2.13
Base5.0%$3.64
Bull10.0%$5.46

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001043337-24-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001043337-25-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001043337-26-000023 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001043337-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001043337-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001043337-26-000023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001043337-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001043337-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001043337-26-000023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001043337-23-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001043337-26-000023 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001043337-23-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001043337-24-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001043337-25-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001043337-26-000023 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001043337-23-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001043337-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001043337-25-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001043337-26-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)