MeritValue

SEMPRA

SREdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

SEMPRA earns about 7% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $33.9 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$11.7B1$13.7B2$14.8B3$11.8B3$12.4B3
Net income$1.32B4$2.14B5$3.08B6$2.86B6$1.84B6
Operating cash flow$3.84B7$1.14B8$6.22B9$4.91B9$4.57B9
Capital expenditure$5.02B10$5.36B11$8.4B12$8.22B12$10.6B12
Free cash flow (derived)−$1.17B7−$4.22B8−$2.18B9−$3.31B9−$6.05B9
Total debt$3.47B13$3.35B14$2.34B15$2.02B16$4.17B16
Cash & equivalents$559M17$370M18$236M19$1.57B20$29M20
Diluted shares626.1M632.8M632.7M637.9M653.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$483.22
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$28.1
Free cash flow it threw off
−$92.49
Debt you’d be carrying
$63.72

10 shares is a claim on $483.22 of net worth that earned you $28.1 and generated −$92.49 of cash last year, against $63.72 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 7%FY23 13%FY24 8%FY25 3%

It earned an average 7% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 20% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$33.9
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.14B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$54.68
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001032208-24-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001032208-25-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001032208-26-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001032208-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001032208-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001032208-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001032208-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001032208-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001032208-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001032208-24-000007 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001032208-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001032208-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001032208-23-000008 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001032208-24-000007 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001032208-25-000012 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001032208-26-000010 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001032208-23-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001032208-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001032208-25-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001032208-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)