MeritValue

1ST SOURCE CORP

SRCEdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

1ST SOURCE CORP earns about 24% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 2% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $52.87 and $123.34 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$254.8M1$293.8M2$416.9M3$484M3$514.4M3
Net income$118.6M4$120.5M5$124.9M6$132.6M6$158.3M6
Operating cash flow$166.8M7$175.5M8$187.9M9$193.9M9$223.1M9
Capital expenditure$2.89M10$2.38M11$5.98M12$12.4M12$10.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$163.9M7$173.2M8$182M9$181.5M9$213M9
Total debt$200M13$215.5M14$312.4M15$249.2M16$238.6M16
Cash & equivalents$525.2M17$122.8M18$129.7M18$124.8M18$119.9M18
Diluted shares25.0M24.7M24.6M24.5M24.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$520.66
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$64.63
Free cash flow it threw off
$87
Debt you’d be carrying
$97.45

10 shares is a claim on $520.66 of net worth that earned you $64.63 and generated $87 of cash last year, against $97.45 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
24% avg · 5y
FY21 22%FY22 15%FY23 20%FY24 30%FY25 31%

It earned about 24% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is down 2% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 19% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $52.87 and $123.34 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$123.34
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth3.6%
  • fcfBase$182M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$119.07
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth3.6%
  • fcfBase$182M
Earnings Power Value
$52.87
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$124.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$86.66
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years3.6%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $119.07
The three cases
Bear0.0%$101.32
Base3.6%$119.07
Bull8.6%$148.29

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 3.6%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000034782-24-000033 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000034782-25-000025 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000034782-26-000011 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000034782-24-000033 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000034782-25-000025 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000034782-26-000011 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000034782-24-000033 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000034782-25-000025 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000034782-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000034782-24-000033 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000034782-25-000025 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000034782-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000034782-23-000043 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000034782-24-000033 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000034782-25-000025 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000034782-26-000011 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000034782-25-000025 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000034782-26-000011 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)