SR Bancorp, Inc.

SRBKdata completeness 88%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'

The thesis, from the filings

SR Bancorp, Inc. earns about 9% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $2.1 and $16.03 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue
Net income$1.87M1$1.55M2−$10.9M3$5.14M3
Operating cash flow$1.04M4$2.32M5−$1.74M6$4.67M6
Capital expenditure$327,0007$516,0008$1.1M9$433,0009
Free cash flow (derived)$708,0004$1.8M5−$2.84M6$4.23M6
Total debt$20M10$011$30M11
Cash & equivalents$35.3M12$42.4M13$45.9M14$57.8M14
Diluted shares06.8M8.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$229.48
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$6.08
Free cash flow it threw off
$5.01
Debt you’d be carrying
$35.53

10 shares is a claim on $229.48 of net worth that earned you $6.08 and generated $5.01 of cash last year, against $35.53 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 4y
FY22 4%FY23 4%FY24 9%FY25 18%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
shares · 4y

Total debt has risen 50% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2.1 and $16.03 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$16.03
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$10.25
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.8M
Earnings Power Value
$2.1
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.71M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$17.75
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $10.25
The three cases
Bear0.0%$6.34
Base20.0%$10.25
Bull20.0%$10.25

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-23-050475 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-114772 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001193125-25-223165 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-23-050475 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-114772 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001193125-25-223165 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-23-050475 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-114772 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001193125-25-223165 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-114772 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001193125-25-223165 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-23-050475 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-114772 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001193125-25-223165 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)