MeritValue

SPIRE INC

SRdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

SPIRE INC earns about 5% on invested capital, and has bought back 100% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $44.3M a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.24B1$2.2B2$2.67B3$2.59B3$2.48B3
Net income$271.7M4$220.8M5$217.5M6$250.9M6$271.7M6
Operating cash flow$249.8M7$55M8$440.2M9$912.4M9$578M9
Capital expenditure$624.8M10$552.2M11$662.5M12$861.3M12$922.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$375M7−$497.2M8−$222.3M9$51.1M9−$344.4M9
Total debt$3.97B13$3.24B14$4.67B15$4.69B16$5.17B16
Cash & equivalents$4.3M17$6.5M18$5.6M19$4.5M20$5.7M20
Diluted shares51.7M52.1M52.656.358.7

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$577.4M
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$46.3M
Free cash flow it threw off
−$58.7M
Debt you’d be carrying
$881.4M

10 shares is a claim on $577.4M of net worth that earned you $46.3M and generated −$58.7M of cash last year, against $881.4M of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 5%FY23 5%FY24 5%FY25 5%

It earned an average 5% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−100% shares · 5y

Share count is down 100% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 30% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$44.3M
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$250.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$75,348.45
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001437749-23-032284 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001437749-24-035823 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-282583 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001437749-23-032284 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001437749-24-035823 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-282583 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001437749-23-032284 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001437749-24-035823 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-282583 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001437749-23-032284 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001437749-24-035823 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-282583 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001437749-22-027522 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001437749-23-032284 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001437749-24-035823 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-282583 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001437749-22-027522 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001437749-23-032284 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001437749-24-035823 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-282583 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)