MeritValue

SPX Technologies, Inc.

SPXCdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

SPX Technologies, Inc. earns about 11% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $42.83 and $303.94 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.22B1$1.46B2$1.74B3$1.98B3$2.27B3
Net income$425.4M4$200,0005$89.9M6$200.5M6$244M6
Operating cash flow$174.6M7−$136.8M8$208.5M9$285.9M9$333.3M9
Capital expenditure$9.6M10$15.9M11$23.9M12$38M12$92.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$165M7−$152.7M8$184.6M9$247.9M9$241.2M9
Total debt$15.2M13$3.8M14$35.2M15$37.7M16$4.9M16
Cash & equivalents$388.2M17$147.8M18$99.4M19$156.9M19$364M19
Diluted shares46.5M46.2M46.6M47.1M48.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$461.24
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$50.3
Free cash flow it threw off
$49.72
Debt you’d be carrying
$1.01

10 shares is a claim on $461.24 of net worth that earned you $50.3 and generated $49.72 of cash last year, against $1.01 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 3%FY23 15%FY24 16%FY25 13%

It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 68% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $42.83 and $303.94 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$303.94
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$241.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$169.51
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$241.2M
Earnings Power Value
$42.83
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$200.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$72.25
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $169.51
The three cases
Bear0.0%$78.44
Base20.0%$169.51
Bull20.0%$169.51

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000088205-24-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000088205-25-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000088205-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000088205-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000088205-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000088205-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000088205-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000088205-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000088205-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000088205-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000088205-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000088205-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000088205-23-000007 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000088205-24-000008 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000088205-25-000007 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000088205-26-000008 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000088205-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000088205-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000088205-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)