MeritValue

SPORTSMAN'S WAREHOUSE HOLDINGS, INC.

SPWHdata completeness 100%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

SPORTSMAN'S WAREHOUSE HOLDINGS, INC. earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 14% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.85 and $2.2 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$1.51B1$1.4B2$1.29B3$1.2B3$1.21B3
Net income$108.5M4$40.5M5−$29M6−$33.1M6−$50.1M6
Operating cash flow−$21.6M7$46.8M8$52.3M9$34.1M9$31.3M9
Capital expenditure$53.5M10$63.5M11$79.9M12$14.6M12$22.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$75.1M7−$16.7M8−$27.6M9$19.6M9$8.88M9
Total debt——$013$48.1M14$88.3M14
Cash & equivalents$57M15$2.39M16$3.14M17$2.83M18$1.66M18
Diluted shares44.5M40.7M37.5M37.8M38.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$49.12
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$13.04
Free cash flow it threw off
$2.31
Debt you’d be carrying
$23.01

10 shares is a claim on $49.12 of net worth that earned you −$13.04 and generated $2.31 of cash last year, against $23.01 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY22 43%FY23 15%FY24 -8%FY25 -5%FY26 -11%

It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−14% shares · 5y

Share count is down 14% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.85 and $2.2 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$2.2
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$8.88M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$1.85
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$8.88M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $1.85
The three cases
Bear0.0%$1.05
Base5.0%$1.85
Bull10.0%$2.81

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-24-041618 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-25-048890 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001193125-26-134702 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-24-041618 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-25-048890 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001193125-26-134702 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-24-041618 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-25-048890 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001193125-26-134702 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-24-041618 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-25-048890 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001193125-26-134702 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000950170-25-048890 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0001193125-26-134702 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-23-012621 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-24-041618 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000950170-25-048890 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0001193125-26-134702 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)