SPS COMMERCE INC
SPSCdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'
SPS COMMERCE INC earns about 14% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 3% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $17.95 and $214.18 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $385.3M1 | $450.9M2 | $536.9M3 | $637.8M3 | $751.5M3 |
| Net income | $44.6M4 | $55.1M5 | $65.8M6 | $77.1M6 | $93.3M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $112.9M7 | $100.1M8 | $132.3M9 | $157.4M9 | $178.8M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $19.6M10 | $19.9M11 | $19.8M12 | $20M12 | $26.5M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $93.3M7 | $80.2M8 | $112.5M9 | $137.4M9 | $152.3M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $207.6M13 | $162.9M14 | $219.1M15 | $241M16 | $151.4M16 |
| Diluted shares | 37.0M | 37.0M | 37.5M | 37.9M | 38.0M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $256.34 of net worth that earned you $24.57 and generated $40.08 of cash last year.
It earned about 14% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 3% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $17.95 and $214.18 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth19.7%
- fcfBase$137.4M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth19.7%
- fcfBase$137.4M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$65.8M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $55.64 |
| Base | 19.7% | $120.3 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $121.86 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 19.7%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001092699-24-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001092699-25-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001092699-26-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001092699-24-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001092699-25-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001092699-26-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001092699-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001092699-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001092699-26-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001092699-24-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001092699-25-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001092699-26-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001092699-23-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001092699-24-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001092699-25-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001092699-26-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)