MeritValue

ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

SPRYdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc. earns about -34% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 241% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.51M1$1.32M2$30,0003$89.1M4$84.3M4
Net income−$20.2M5−$34.7M6−$54.4M7$8M8−$171.3M8
Operating cash flow−$17.6M9−$40.1M10−$59.3M11$13.5M12−$170.9M12
Capital expenditure$55,00013$199,00014$175,00015$563,00016$339,00016
Free cash flow (derived)−$17.6M9−$40.3M10−$59.4M11$13M12−$171.2M12
Total debt———$017$96.4M17
Cash & equivalents$60.1M18$210.5M19$71M20$50.8M21$41.3M21
Diluted shares28.9M40.0M95.2M102.4M98.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$11.59
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$17.38
Free cash flow it threw off
−$17.37
Debt you’d be carrying
$9.78

10 shares is a claim on $11.59 of net worth that earned you −$17.38 and generated −$17.37 of cash last year, against $9.78 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-34% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 —FY23 -27%FY24 4%FY25 -80%

It earned an average -34% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+241% shares · 5y

Share count is up 241% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009491 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-034689 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-042320 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-097478 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009491 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-034689 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-042320 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-097478 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009491 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-034689 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-042320 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-097478 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009491 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-034689 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-042320 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-097478 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-097478 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009491 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-034689 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-042320 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-097478 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)