MeritValue

Spero Therapeutics, Inc.

SPROdata completeness 75%11 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Spero Therapeutics, Inc. earns about -55% on equity, but has diluted owners by 91% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.07M1$2.5M2$933,0003$371,0004$12.6M4
Net income−$89.8M5−$46.4M6$22.8M7−$68.6M8$8.57M8
Operating cash flow−$64.3M9−$7.73M10−$33M11−$23.4M12−$12.6M12
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$112.6M13$109.1M14$76.3M15$52.9M16$40.3M16
Diluted shares30.9M37.6M53.0M54.0M59.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$10
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1.45
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $10 of net worth that earned you $1.45 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-55% avg · 5y
FY21 -102%FY22 -61%FY23 21%FY24 -149%FY25 15%

It earned an average -55% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+91% shares · 5y

Share count is up 91% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 1 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 1 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$1.84
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010921 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-030767 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-046125 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-126192 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-22-005194 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-030767 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-046125 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-126192 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010921 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-030767 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-046125 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-126192 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010921 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-030767 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-046125 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-126192 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)