MeritValue

SiriusPoint Ltd

SPNTdata completeness 88%14 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

SiriusPoint Ltd earns about 8% on invested capital, and has bought back 19% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $17.03 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.18B1$2.11B2$2.74B3$2.6B3$3.21B3
Net income$58.1M4−$386.8M5$354.8M6$199.9M6$459.6M6
Operating cash flow$1.6M7$293.3M8$581.3M9$74.7M9$102.4M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$816.7M10$778M11$786.2M12$639.1M13$688.6M13
Cash & equivalents$999.8M14$705.3M15$969.2M16$682M17$731.2M17
Diluted shares150.2M160.2M169.6M169.5M121.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$203.03
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$37.78
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$56.61

10 shares is a claim on $203.03 of net worth that earned you $37.78 last year, against $56.61 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 -14%FY23 16%FY24 14%FY25 22%

It earned an average 8% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−19% shares · 5y

Share count is down 19% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 16% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$17.03
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$199.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$40.78
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001576018-24-000018 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001576018-25-000010 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001576018-26-000032 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001576018-24-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001576018-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001576018-26-000032 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001576018-24-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001576018-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001576018-26-000032 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001576018-23-000016 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001576018-24-000018 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001576018-25-000010 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001576018-26-000032 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001576018-23-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001576018-24-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001576018-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001576018-26-000032 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)