MeritValue

Spire Global, Inc.

SPIRdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Spire Global, Inc. earns about -11% on invested capital, and has bought back 49% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$43.4M1$70.8M2$97.6M3$110.5M4$71.6M4
Net income−$38.1M5−$99M6−$77.6M7−$103.4M8$51.3M8
Operating cash flow−$58M9−$45.7M10−$36.3M11−$18.5M12−$59.8M12
Capital expenditure$15.4M13$21M14$17.4M15$26.6M16$32.8M16
Free cash flow (derived)−$73.4M9−$66.7M10−$53.7M11−$45M12−$92.6M12
Total debt$51.1M17$98.5M18$237.2M19$201.6M20$021
Cash & equivalents$109.3M22$47.2M23$29.1M24$19.2M25$24.8M25
Diluted shares62.1M17.5M19.6M24.2M32.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$35.34
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$16.06
Free cash flow it threw off
−$28.98
Debt you’d be carrying
$0

10 shares is a claim on $35.34 of net worth that earned you $16.06 and generated −$28.98 of cash last year, against $0 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-11% avg · 5y
FY21 -16%FY22 -47%FY23 -19%FY24 -38%FY25 66%

It earned an average -11% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−49% shares · 5y

Share count is down 49% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$10.89
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008177 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030856 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-051157 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-116169 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008177 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030856 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-051157 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-116169 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008177 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030856 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-051157 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-116169 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008177 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030856 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-051157 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-116169 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008177 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030856 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-051157 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-116169 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-116169 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008177 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030856 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-051157 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  25. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-116169 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)