SUBURBAN PROPANE PARTNERS LP
SPHdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'stockholdersEquity'
The thesis, from the filings
The applicable estimate puts fair value near $19.4 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
i. The business — what you’d actually own
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.29B1 | $1.5B2 | $1.43B3 | $1.33B3 | $1.43B3 |
| Net income | $122.8M4 | $139.7M5 | $123.8M6 | $74.2M6 | $106.6M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $226.6M7 | $220.5M8 | $225.2M9 | $160.6M9 | $186.3M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $29.9M10 | $44.4M11 | $44.9M12 | $59.4M12 | $72M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $196.7M7 | $176.2M8 | $180.3M9 | $101.2M9 | $114.3M9 |
| Total debt | $2.24B13 | $2.15B14 | $2.38B15 | $2.42B16 | $2.42B16 |
| Cash & equivalents | $5.81M17 | $4.1M18 | $3.51M19 | $3.22M19 | $405,00019 |
| Diluted shares | 63.3M | 64.0M | 64.4M | 64.8M | 65.6M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
—
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$16.25
Free cash flow it threw off
$17.43
Debt you’d be carrying
$369.5
10 shares of this business that earned you $16.25 and generated $17.43 of cash last year, against $369.5 of debt.
iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
— avg · 5y
Not enough data in the filings for a return-on-capital reading.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y
Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$114.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$114.3M
Earnings Power Value
$19.4
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$122.8M
- growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
Sources — the receipts
- 10-K · period ending 2021-09-25 · accession 0000950170-23-065770 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-09-24 · accession 0000950170-24-131309 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-298630 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-09-25 · accession 0000950170-23-065770 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-09-24 · accession 0000950170-24-131309 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-298630 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-09-25 · accession 0000950170-23-065770 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-09-24 · accession 0000950170-24-131309 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-298630 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-09-25 · accession 0000950170-23-065770 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-09-24 · accession 0000950170-24-131309 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-298630 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-09-25 · accession 0000950170-22-025646 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-09-24 · accession 0000950170-23-065770 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-131309 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-09-28 · accession 0001193125-25-298630 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-09-25 · accession 0000950170-23-065770 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-09-24 · accession 0000950170-24-131309 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-298630 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)