S&P Global Inc.
SPGIdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on fileS&P Global Inc. earns about 24% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 26% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $110.32 and $714.14 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.3B1 | $11.2B1 | $12.5B2 | $14.2B2 | $15.3B2 |
| Net income | $3.02B3 | $3.25B3 | $2.63B4 | $3.85B4 | $4.47B4 |
| Operating cash flow | $3.6B5 | $2.6B5 | $3.71B6 | $5.69B6 | $5.65B6 |
| Capital expenditure | $35M7 | $89M7 | $143M8 | $124M8 | $195M8 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $3.56B5 | $2.51B5 | $3.57B6 | $5.57B6 | $5.46B6 |
| Total debt | $8.23B9 | $21.9B10 | $22.9B10 | $22.8B11 | $26.2B11 |
| Cash & equivalents | $6.5B12 | $1.29B13 | $1.29B13 | $1.67B14 | $1.75B14 |
| Diluted shares | 241.8M | 318.5M | 318.9M | 311.9M | 305.1M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $1,020.22 of net worth that earned you $146.54 and generated $178.83 of cash last year, against $857.95 of debt.
It earned about 24% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 26% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 218% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $110.32 and $714.14 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth16.0%
- fcfBase$5.46B
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth16.0%
- fcfBase$5.46B
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$3.25B
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $175.43 |
| Base | 16.0% | $419.58 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $502.96 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 16.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000064040-24-000071 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000064040-26-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000064040-24-000071 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000064040-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000064040-24-000071 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000064040-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000064040-24-000071 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000064040-26-000013 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000064040-23-000058 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000064040-24-000071 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000064040-26-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000064040-23-000058 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000064040-24-000071 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000064040-26-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)