MeritValue

SIMON PROPERTY GROUP INC.

SPGdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

SIMON PROPERTY GROUP INC. earns about 87% on equity, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $45.3 and $83.09 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.12B1$5.29B2$5.66B3$5.96B3$6.36B3
Net income$2.57B4$2.45B5$2.62B6$2.73B6$5.36B6
Operating cash flow$3.64B7$3.77B8$3.93B9$3.81B9$4.14B9
Capital expenditure$527.9M10$650M11$793.3M12$755.6M12$934.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$3.11B7$3.12B8$3.14B9$3.06B9$3.2B9
Total debt$25.3B13$25B14$26B15$24.3B16$28.4B16
Cash & equivalents$533.9M17$621.6M18$1.17B19$1.4B20$823.1M20
Diluted shares328.6M327.8M326.8M326.1M326.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$159.58
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$164.36
Free cash flow it threw off
$98.12
Debt you’d be carrying
$871.11

10 shares is a claim on $159.58 of net worth that earned you $164.36 and generated $98.12 of cash last year, against $871.11 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
87% avg · 5y
FY21 76%FY22 78%FY23 87%FY24 93%FY25 103%

It earned about 87% on equity, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 12% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $45.3 and $83.09 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$45.3
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.3%
  • fcfBase$3.14B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$54.59
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.3%
  • fcfBase$3.14B
Earnings Power Value
$83.09
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.62B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$71.33
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.3%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $54.59
The three cases
Bear0.0%$52.77
Base0.3%$54.59
Bull5.3%$88.2

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001532 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001271 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019419 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001532 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001271 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019419 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001532 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001271 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019419 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001532 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001271 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019419 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-001840 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001532 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001271 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019419 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-001840 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001532 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001271 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019419 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)