MeritValue

SOUTH PLAINS FINANCIAL, INC.

SPFIdata completeness 88%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

SOUTH PLAINS FINANCIAL, INC. earns about 142% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $35.68 and $79.66 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$135M1$161.2M2$212M3$240.9M3$252M3
Net income$58.6M4$58.2M5$62.7M6$49.7M6$58.5M6
Operating cash flow$96.3M7$123.6M8$58.5M9$59.4M9$77.5M9
Capital expenditure$2.92M10$4.47M11$4.68M12$3.35M12$5.66M12
Free cash flow (derived)$93.4M7$119.1M8$53.9M9$56M9$71.8M9
Total debt$013————
Cash & equivalents$486.8M14$234.9M15$330.2M16$359.1M17$552.4M17
Diluted shares18.5M18.0M17.3M17.0M17.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$290.78
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$34.43
Free cash flow it threw off
$42.29
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $290.78 of net worth that earned you $34.43 and generated $42.29 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
142% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 62%FY23 156%FY24 207%FY25 —

It earned about 142% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $35.68 and $79.66 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$76.12
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$56M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$79.66
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$56M
Earnings Power Value
$35.68
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$58.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$47.44
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $79.66
The three cases
Bear0.0%$79.66
Base0.0%$79.66
Bull5.0%$91.07

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-013519 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-007609 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-008087 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-013519 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-007609 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-008087 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-013519 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-007609 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-008087 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-013519 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-007609 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-008087 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-22-008216 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-011435 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-013519 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-007609 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-008087 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)