MeritValue

Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc

SPCEdata completeness 100%9 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc earns about -96% on invested capital, and has bought back 79% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.29M1$2.31M1$6.8M2$7.04M3$1.54M3
Net income−$352.9M4−$500.2M4−$502.3M5−$346.7M6−$278.9M6
Operating cash flow−$230.8M7−$380.2M7−$448.2M8−$352.7M9−$240.1M9
Capital expenditure$4.64M10$16.5M10$44.3M11$121.9M12$198M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$235.4M7−$396.7M7−$492.5M8−$474.6M9−$438.2M9
Total debt$620,00013——$840.2M14$648.4M14
Cash & equivalents$524.5M15$302.3M15$216.8M16$178.6M17$144.7M17
Diluted shares247.6M263.9M16.9M25.0M51.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$53.46
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$54.43
Free cash flow it threw off
−$85.51
Debt you’d be carrying
$126.53

10 shares is a claim on $53.46 of net worth that earned you −$54.43 and generated −$85.51 of cash last year, against $126.53 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-96% avg · 5y
FY21 -75%FY22 -216%FY23 -134%FY24 -28%FY25 -28%

It earned an average -96% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−79% shares · 5y

Share count is down 79% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 104478% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001706946-24-000039 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001706946-25-000038 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001706946-26-000019 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001706946-24-000039 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001706946-25-000038 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001706946-26-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001706946-24-000039 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001706946-25-000038 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001706946-26-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001706946-24-000039 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001706946-25-000038 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001706946-26-000019 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001706946-22-000035 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001706946-26-000019 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001706946-24-000039 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001706946-25-000038 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001706946-26-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)