MeritValue

Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc.

SPBdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc. earns about -1% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 40% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $24.19 and $49.93 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3B1$3.13B2$2.92B3$2.96B3$2.81B3
Net income$189.6M4$71.6M5$1.8B6$124.8M6$99.9M6
Operating cash flow$288.4M7−$53.8M8−$409.7M9$162.6M9$203.6M9
Capital expenditure$43.6M10$64M11$59M12$44M12$38.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$244.8M7−$117.8M8−$468.7M9$118.6M9$165.3M9
Total debt$4.95B13$6.26B14$3.04B15$1.06B16$1.06B16
Cash & equivalents$187.9M17$243.7M18$753.9M19$368.9M20$123.6M20
Diluted shares43.2M40.9M39.5M30.5M25.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$737.34
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$38.57
Free cash flow it threw off
$63.82
Debt you’d be carrying
$410.81

10 shares is a claim on $737.34 of net worth that earned you $38.57 and generated $63.82 of cash last year, against $410.81 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-1% avg · 5y
FY21 -2%FY22 -2%FY23 -7%FY24 4%FY25 3%

It earned about -1% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−40% shares · 5y

Share count is down 40% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 78% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $24.19 and $49.93 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$24.19
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$118.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$29.12
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$118.6M
Earnings Power Value
$49.93
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$124.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$80.02
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $29.12
The three cases
Bear0.0%$29.12
Base0.0%$29.12
Bull5.0%$44.95

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000109177-23-000054 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000109177-24-000047 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000109177-25-000043 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000109177-23-000054 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000109177-24-000047 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000109177-25-000043 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000109177-23-000054 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000109177-24-000047 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000109177-25-000043 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000109177-23-000054 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000109177-24-000047 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000109177-25-000043 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000109177-22-000034 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000109177-23-000054 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000109177-24-000047 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000109177-25-000043 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000109177-22-000034 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000109177-23-000054 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000109177-24-000047 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000109177-25-000043 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)