MeritValue

SONOCO PRODUCTS CO

SONdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

SONOCO PRODUCTS CO earns about 4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $48.54 and $224.26 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.59B1$5.38B2$5.44B3$5.31B3$7.52B3
Net income−$85.5M4$466.4M5$475M6$163.9M6$1B6
Operating cash flow$298.7M7$509M8$882.9M9$833.8M9$689.8M9
Capital expenditure$256M10$328.8M11$363.1M12$393.2M12$344M12
Free cash flow (derived)$42.7M7$180.3M8$519.8M9$440.6M9$345.8M9
Total debt—$3.22B13$3.04B14$7.04B15$4.33B15
Cash & equivalents$171M16$227.4M17$138.9M18$431M19$378.4M19
Diluted shares99.6M98.7M98.9M99.3M99.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$362.95
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$100.73
Free cash flow it threw off
$34.72
Debt you’d be carrying
$434.56

10 shares is a claim on $362.95 of net worth that earned you $100.73 and generated $34.72 of cash last year, against $434.56 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 -5%FY22 9%FY23 9%FY24 1%FY25 8%

It earned about 4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 34% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $48.54 and $224.26 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$224.26
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$440.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$104.62
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$440.6M
Earnings Power Value
$48.54
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$466.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$90.68
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $104.62
The three cases
Bear0.0%$23.57
Base20.0%$104.62
Bull20.0%$104.62

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000091767-24-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000091767-25-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000091767-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000091767-24-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000091767-25-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000091767-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000091767-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000091767-25-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000091767-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000091767-24-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000091767-25-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000091767-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000091767-24-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000091767-25-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000091767-26-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000091767-23-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000091767-24-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000091767-25-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000091767-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)