MeritValue

SoFi Technologies, Inc.

SOFIdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

SoFi Technologies, Inc. earns about 21% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 138% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$247.7M1$377.1M2$421.5M3$503.1M3$619.4M3
Net income−$483.9M4−$320.4M5−$300.7M6$498.7M6$481.3M6
Operating cash flow−$1.35B7−$7.26B8−$7.23B9−$1.12B9−$3.74B9
Capital expenditure$52.3M10$93.2M11$111.4M12$154.3M12$242.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$1.4B7−$7.35B8−$7.34B9−$1.27B9−$3.98B9
Total debt$3.95B13$5.49B13———
Cash & equivalents$494.7M14$1.42B15$3.09B16$2.54B16$4.93B16
Diluted shares526.7M900.9M945.0M1.10B1.25B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$83.8
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.85
Free cash flow it threw off
−$31.83
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $83.8 of net worth that earned you $3.85 and generated −$31.83 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
21% avg · 5y
FY21 -4%FY22 -1%FY23 18%FY24 49%FY25 45%

It earned an average 21% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+138% shares · 5y

Share count is up 138% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 39% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$8.58
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001818874-24-000026 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001818874-25-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001818874-26-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001818874-24-000026 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001818874-25-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001818874-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001818874-24-000026 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001818874-25-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001818874-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001818874-24-000026 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001818874-25-000016 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001818874-26-000013 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001818874-23-000018 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001818874-24-000026 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001818874-25-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001818874-26-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)